整体成功概率
数学期望
条件概率
贝叶斯定理
我们需要接受不确定性是世界的常态。人类总是习惯忽略随机性，牵强的从不同的随机事件之间总结规律，例如：彩票数字，算命。贝叶斯思维是动态的，通过不断积累信息，修正我们初始的信念。贝叶斯同时是一种解决逆概率的思维，我们通过观察到的数据推测未来。贝叶斯也是一种哲学，要求我们对任何事情不能过早下定论，一开始下定论意味着先验概率是0或1不再更新。
Overall Success Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayesianism
We need to accept that uncertainty is the norm in the world. Human beings are often inclined to ignore randomness and try to derive patterns from disparate random events, such as lottery numbers and fortune-telling. Bayesian thinking is dynamic, constantly adjusting our initial beliefs through the accumulation of information. It is a way to tackle inverse probabilities, allowing us to make inferences about the future based on observed data. Bayesian thinking is also a philosophy that urges us not to jump to conclusions prematurely. Making premature judgments implies that our prior probabilities are fixed at either 0 or 1 and cannot be updated.