基本比率谬误
辛普森悖论
幸存者偏见
Base Rate Fallacy
It refers to the tendency to ignore the base rate or prior probability in favor of specific information or evidence when making judgments or decisions.
Simpson’s Paradox
It is a phenomenon in statistics where a trend or relationship appears in different groups of data, but when the groups are combined, the trend or relationship reverses or disappears.
Survivorship Bias
It occurs when only the successful or surviving individuals or outcomes are observed or considered, leading to an inaccurate understanding or assessment of the overall situation or probabilities.