常见的统计谬误 common statistical fallacies

基本比率谬误

辛普森悖论

幸存者偏见

Base Rate Fallacy

It refers to the tendency to ignore the base rate or prior probability in favor of specific information or evidence when making judgments or decisions.

Simpson’s Paradox

It is a phenomenon in statistics where a trend or relationship appears in different groups of data, but when the groups are combined, the trend or relationship reverses or disappears.

Survivorship Bias

It occurs when only the successful or surviving individuals or outcomes are observed or considered, leading to an inaccurate understanding or assessment of the overall situation or probabilities.

References

底层逻辑2 理解商业世界的本质
关于辛普森悖论的深度解析